Long-term prognostic validity of talent selections: Comparing national and regional coaches, laypersons and novices

(Langfristige prognostische Validität von Talentauswahlentscheidungen: Vergleich von National-, Regionaltrainern, Laien und Novizen)

In most sports, the development of elite athletes is a long-term process of talent identification and support. Typically, talent selection systems administer a multi-faceted strategy including national coach observations and varying physical and psychological tests when deciding who is chosen for talent development. The aim of this exploratory study was to evaluate the prognostic validity of talent selections by varying groups 10 years after they had been conducted. This study used a unique, multi-phased approach. Phase 1 involved players (n = 68) in 2001 completing a battery of general and sport-specific tests of handball `talent` and performance. In Phase 2, national and regional coaches (n = 7) in 2001 who attended training camps identified the most talented players. In Phase 3, current novice and advanced handball players (n = 12 in each group) selected the most talented from short videos of matches played during the talent camp. Analyses compared predictions among all groups with a best model-fit derived from the motor tests. Results revealed little difference between regional and national coaches in the prediction of future performance and little difference in forecasting performance between novices and players. The best model-fit regression by the motor-tests outperformed all predictions. While several limitations are discussed, this study is a useful starting point for future investigations considering athlete selection decisions in talent identification in sport.
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Schlagworte: Talent Auswahl Entscheidungsverhalten Trainer Handball Spielsportart national Prognose Leistung Test Diagnostik
Notationen: Ausbildung und Forschung Nachwuchssport Spielsportarten
DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01146
Veröffentlicht in: Frontiers in Psychology
Veröffentlicht: 2017
Jahrgang: 8
Heft: 1146
Seiten: 1-8
Dokumentenarten: Artikel
Sprache: Englisch
Level: hoch