Winning tennis matches with fewer points or games than the opponent

Due to its unique scoring system, in tennis it is possible to win a match with fewer points or fewer games than the opponent. This scoring quirk has been called Quasi-Simpson paradox (QSP) and has been analyzed by Wright et al. (2013) for the years 1990-2011. This work follows up that of Wright et al. (2013) and extends it in that: i) the QSP is studied for different, and more recent, years (2012-2017), allowing a time comparison; ii) QSP is considered with respect to games as well as to points; iii) it considers both men and women; iv) the significance of the results is verified by means of statistical tests; v) it analyzes also the difference of won points, between the winner and the loser, when QSP occurs; vi) QSP is studied also through Monte Carlo simulations allowing to analyze QSP excluding any possible players` strategy. The simulative approach allows us to solve the seeming "Federer paradox".
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Subjects: tennis mathematical statistics simulation
Notations: technical and natural sciences sport games
Tagging: Quasi-Simpson Paradoxon Federer Paradoxon
DOI: 10.3233/JSA-190328
Published in: Journal of Sports Analytics
Published: 2019
Volume: 5
Issue: 4
Pages: 313-324
Document types: article
Language: English
Level: advanced