Researchers largely agree that there is a positive relationship between achievement motivation and athletic performance, which is why the achievement motive is viewed as a potential criterion for talent. However, the underlying mechanism behind this relationship remains unclear. In talent and performance models, main effect, mediator and moderator models have been suggested. A longitudinal study was carried out among 140 13-year-old football talents, using structural equation modelling to determine which model best explains how hope for success (HS) and fear of failure (FF), which are the aspects of the achievement motive, motor skills and abilities that affect performance. Over a period of half a year, HS can to some extent explain athletic performance, but this relationship is not mediated by the volume of training, sport-specific skills or abilities, nor is the achievement motive a moderating variable. Contrary to expectations, FF does not explain any part of performance. Aside from HS, however, motor abilities and in particular skills also predict a significant part of performance. The study confirms the widespread assumption that the development of athletic performance in football depends on multiple factors, and in particular that HS is worth watching in the medium term as a predictor of talent.
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